Aside from a cold snap in December, the UK’s weather this winter has been largely characterised by heavy rain and strong winds.
This was partially driven by a so-called “bomb cyclone”, which struck the US over the Christmas period and had ripple effects that reached across the Atlantic via the jet stream. As a result, we’ve seen lots of travel disruption, flood alerts and damage.
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How does the 2022-23 winter compare to previous years?
Can the UK expect a turn towards colder conditions in the first quarter of 2023? Let’s take a look at some data:
In 2020-21, the weather was close to ‘average’. The UK mean temperature was 3.5C, which is 0.2C below average.
In 2021-22, the weather was recorded as ‘milder than average’. The UK mean temperature was 5.2C, which is 1.1C above average.
Last winter was milder than the average. Rainfall levels across the UK were 93% of the norm and sunshine levels were 101% of the average.
Winter 2020/21 was slightly colder than the norm, but the anomalies were most significant in the north.
At the moment, most of the data is suggesting a milder than average winter 2022-23. Seasonal models strongly support the idea of it being milder than average. The precipitation signal is much weaker. The QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) also suggests a lower chance of a cold winter. High levels of solar activity this year may also favour a mild winter. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a regular variation of the winds that blow high above the equator.
How long will the UK’s current wet and windy weather last?
The UK’s weather has settled into a persistent pattern of wet and windy conditions. More is to come, but will the cold and snow return?
The British winter has so far been most notable for the very cold December, which, as chilly as it was, failed to prevent 2022 from being provisionally declared the country’s warmest year on record.
However, our weather has since fallen into a rather monotonous westerly flow, bringing frequent periods of wind and rain in from the Atlantic. This has caused flooding problems – a threat which could well appear again before the spring.
Part of the reason why the UK has had such persistent wet weather recently is down to the strength of the jet stream. The stunning low temperatures recorded in North America over Christmas helped create a temperature contrast conducive for invigorating the jet stream over the Atlantic, essentially adding fuel to the low pressure systems arriving on our shores.
Although the extreme winter freeze in North America has relented, further cold spells are expected there moving forward, according to the Met Office. This will likely impact the jet stream in a similar way.
In addition, the influence of a third consecutive La Niña is at play. This climate pattern, characterised by cooler than average sea temperatures in the Pacific, often brings the UK drier, cooler conditions in the first half of winter (as we saw in December), followed by a more unsettled second half of the season.
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